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The Kyiv Independent
Friday, March 11, 2022
Russia’s war on Ukraine jeopardizes global food security, increasing famine riskMarch 10, 2022 8:52 pm by Natalia Datskevych
A burned and overturned truck lays on its side in the field with explosive munition spilled out and scattered around it, in an area where there was recent heavy fighting between the Russian and Ukrainian forces, near Sytniaky, Kyiv Oblast, on March 5, 2022. (MARCUS YAM / LOS ANGELES TIMES)
Spring. As the winter softens, Ukraine’s farmers used to take to their fields, sowing the seeds of wheat, sunflowers, and buckwheat and tending to poultry farms whose yields are sent across the world.
This year, planting has become a luxury, in many cases fields and livestock have been abandoned. Millions of hectares will be empty, or otherwise overrun by tanks emblazoned with the letter Z.
While the world watches one humanitarian crisis after another brought by Russia’s war, a no less critical casualty is the mounting impact on the food Ukraine supplies the world.
Huge swaths of the global food supply, including wheat, corn, sunflower oil, soybeans and barley as well as poultry and eggs, come from Ukraine, accounting for 15% of the global food market. India, China, Egypt, Turkey, Poland and Germany are among the largest importers.
This season, the engine of Ukraine’s food supply has ground to a halt.
“This will be a problem not only for Ukraine but for the whole world,” Dykun said. “Global hunger could worsen dramatically.”
Andriy Yarmak, an economist and agricultural expert, has a similar forecast. He believes that the Russian invasion may result in many deaths due to malnutrition worldwide.
“Ukraine is already missing the planting campaign in the south, where huge hordes of Russians are ruining the fields with their tanks and shooting randomly at civilians,” Yarmak says.
He estimates that Ukraine won’t be able to export anything for many months and says it will take years to reach pre-war production levels.
As many as 400 million people may be affected globally, according to the Kyiv School of Economics.
Domestic shortages
Much of Ukraine’s most agricultural land, such as the typically lucrative oblasts of Kherson and Mykolaiv, are in eastern territories where fighting is most intense. It is clear this year that farmers won’t be able to sow their fields as in years past.
Alex Lissitsa, head of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, estimates that in total, no more than half of Ukraine’s agricultural land, or 10 million hectares, this year, will be planted.
To meet anticipated shortages, the martial law imposed shortly after the Russian offensive began included a ban on key agricultural exports.
“We must provide Ukraine with everything the country needs,” said Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.
The ban includes oats, buckwheat, rye, millet, beef, sugar and salt. A number of other products including wheat, sunflower oil, corn, poultry and eggs now require special permits from the Ministry of Economy when exported.
Prices have already ballooned in response. After the first week of war, wheat prices in Ukraine jumped by 25%, reaching $290 per ton.
Worst-hit cities like Kharkiv, Kherson and Sumy are running out of food and water and on the verge of humanitarian catastrophe. Kyiv has already been urgently provided with additional food from other oblasts as supplies diminished.
“We brought thousands of tons of grain there,” Dykun told the Kyiv Independent. “It’s a huge reserve.”
Andriy Dykun, head of the All-Ukrainian Agricultural council, says this harvest too will only be enough to satisfy domestic demand. For the time being, Ukraine’s agricultural exports are a thing of the past.
Second front
This looming tragedy in the agricultural sector represents a second front against Russian aggression – one that could actually rally global support, helping to stop the war, Dykun believes.
Attitudes will shift as soon as the countries that import Ukrainian food products realize the toll the supply shortage will have on their people, he says.
While anticipated shortages have already echoed across global markets, such shortages are still not on the agenda of some of the leading global food organizations. Notably, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has ignored the crisis.
“The FAO has to sound the alarm all across the world about the global food supply issue,” Dykun says. “But they don’t make any big statements that will indicate that Putin provoked famine.”
For now, the leader for Europe and Central Asia at the FAO remains the long-time Russian diplomat Vladimir Rakhmanin.
On March 3, the United Nations General Assembly overwhelmingly voted to denounce Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, urging immediate withdrawal of its military forces.
Some countries abstained, including two of Ukraine’s leading importers: India and China.
At the end of the day, countries that did not vote to support Ukraine will suffer from Russia’s war too, Dykun says.
“If the world wants to have something to eat, make peace here so farmers can work.”
Author: Natalia Datskevych
Natalia Datskevych is a business reporter at the Kyiv Independent. Before joining the team, she worked as business reporter for the Kyiv Post. She studied economic theory at Kyiv National Economic University and holds a Ph.D in economic science.
Tags: agriculture, famine, Russia's war
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News Feed
Friday, March 11
15:51
external Majority of Germans support giving up Russian gas and oil imports, supplying arms to Ukraine. According to a recent survey, 55% of German respondents are in favor of cutting energy ties with Russia because of Moscow’s war against Ukraine, Der Tagesspiegel reported. Unlike in February, 67% agreed that Germany should deliver weapons to Ukraine.
15:22
external Village residents help police capture 29 Russian occupiers in Sumy Oblast. According to the National Police, residents reported seeing a group of suspects in a military uniform to the police and the authority immediately responded. The Russian soldiers are now in the hands of law enforcement agencies.
15:02
external Two more Ukrainian soldiers found dead under rubble of Lutsk airfield following Russian attack. A total of four Ukrainian soldiers were killed, six more were injured, according to the mayor of Lutsk, a regional capital in northwestern Ukraine, Ihor Polishchuk.
14:54
external Zelensky: Current sanctions not enough. In a recent address, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that since Russia continues its aggression against Ukraine “then sanctions packages against Russia are not enough, and I expect — we are already working on this today — new sanctions from our partners,” he said. “Russia must pay for this terrible war, pay daily.”
14:31
external Zelensky: It's impossible to predict when but Ukraine will win. “We have already reached a strategic turning point. We are already moving towards our goal, our victory,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a recent address. “We need time, patience, our wisdom, energy, we need to do our job to the best of our abilities.”
13:42
external 2 civilians killed, 2 injured as Russians strike stadium and library in Chernihiv. Three more people remain under the rubble. The attack came on March 11.
13:20
external Over 50,000 households without electricity in Sumy Oblast. According to the head of the Sumy regional state administration Dmytro Zhyvytskyy, over 100 households are also left without gas.
11:58
external UK Defense Ministry: Russia likely wants to resume offensive on Kyiv. According to the data published by the U.K. Defense Ministry, Russia is likely pursuing to reset and re-posture its forces to renew its offensive in the coming days. “This will probably include operations against the capital Kyiv.”
11:34
external Russians strike psychoneurological asylum in Kharkiv. The number of victims is yet unknown. According to Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Synehubov, 73 people were evacuated, but 330 were still at the asylum at the moment of the attack. Many of them are people with disabilities.
11:21
external 2 killed, 6 injured as Russia attacks Lutsk airfield. According to Yuriy Poguliaiko, the head of Volyn regional state administration, Russian forces fired four missiles at a military airbase in Lutsk, killing two Ukrainian soldiers and injuring six.
10:36
external More than 2 million people evacuate from Ukraine’s hot spots by rail since the start of Russia’s invasion. 226,000 of them fled abroad. State railway operator says that the main evacuation trains depart from Kyiv and Kharkiv, while Poland is the most popular international destination.
10:05
external Riga renames street housing Russian Embassy the Independent Ukraine Street. The city authorities passed the decision on March 10, according to Latvian news site Delfi. Now the street will be known as “Ukrainas neatkarības iela” in Latvian.
10:05
Trendy restaurants in Kyiv switch to cook for army, hospitals, elderly amid war
09:46
external Russian forces shell Sumy Oblast overnight, kill 2 civilians. The attack on Kerdylivshchyna village was reported by the head of the Sumy Regional State Administration Dmytro Zhyvytskyi.
08:34
external Chernihiv left without water after Russian strikes. Russian forces hit the northern city’s water supply networks, according to local water management company Chernihivvodokanal. The company has identified the area of impact and announced it will take between three to four hours to repair. It is also urging citizens to report any damaged water pipes.
08:00
external Russian air strikes hit Dnipro, Lutsk, Ivano-Frankivsk early on March 11. Three airstrikes by Russian forces hit residential areas in Dnipro, killing one person, according to Ukraine’s State Emergency Service. Explosions were reported in western Ivano-Frankivsk near its airport, according to the city’s mayor Ruslan Martsinkiv. Four explosions were also reported near an airfield in the northwestern city of Lutsk, according to the head of the Volyn Regional State Administration, Yuriy Pohulyayko.
07:43
external EU meets on Russian military aggression against Ukraine. At a meeting on March 10, EU leaders condemned the “unspeakable suffering” Russia has brought on the Ukrainian people and said in a statement that they “will not leave Ukraine alone.” While EU leaders acknowledged Ukraine’s EU aspirations, Reuters reported that the leaders were cautious about fast tracking the country’s ascension to the union.
07:25
external US Senate passes spending bill that includes $13.6 billion in aid to Ukraine. The bill includes roughly $6.5 billion for the Department of Defense, nearly $4 billion for the State Department and around $2.8 billion for the U.S. Agency for International Development for humanitarian assistance.
07:12
OP-EDAndriy Shevchenko: Putin won’t stop at Ukraine
06:16
external Humanitarian crisis deepens in Mariupol. Humanitarian aid has not been able to reach the besieged southern city for the 6th day in a row, mayor Vadym Boychenko said in a video appeal. The evacuation of Mariupol’s civilians has failed as well due to incessant shelling.
06:13
external Ukraine asks to withdraw over 300 peacekeepers from UN missions. Ukraine has requested to withdraw its remaining uniformed personnel serving with five U.N. peacekeeping operations in Mali, Cyprus, Abyei, South Sudan and Kosovo. This includes 250 troops, 36 staff officers and experts on mission, and 22 police officers.
05:54
external US will not send Patriot defense systems to Ukraine. A senior U.S. defense official told reporters on March 10 that there is no talk at the Pentagon of sending Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries to Ukraine, as they would require U.S. troops on the ground to operate them. “We have made (it) very clear, there will be no U.S. troops fighting in Ukraine,” the official said.
05:03
external CNN: Stalled 64-km-long Russian convoy near Kyiv largely dispersed. Satellite images taken on March 10 show the Russian military convoy northwest of Kyiv has “largely dispersed and redeployed,” Maxar Technologies says. Some parts of the convoy have “repositioned” in forests, while others have been seen sitting on roadways in residential areas.
04:53
external Reuters: WHO says it advised Ukraine to destroy stored pathogens in health labs to prevent disease leaks. The World Health Organization, concerned with Russia’s military advance in Ukraine, advised destroying “high-threat” pathogens stored in public health laboratories, the agency told Reuters on March 10. Ukraine has public health laboratories researching how to mitigate the threats of dangerous diseases affecting both animals and humans including, Covid-19.
04:06
external IMF: Default no longer "unlikely event" for Russia. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that the IMF predicts a deep recession of the Russian economy. In addition, Georgieva highlighted that the IMF does not have any interactions with the Russian Government and its Moscow office is non-operational at the moment.
03:57
external Ukraine’s military: Two columns of advancing Russian forces and ten enemy aircraft were destroyed on March 10. According to Ukraine’s armed forces, the columns were Russian airborne troops and tanks, IFVs, and Grads. The aircraft consisted mainly of Su-25s and Su-34s.
03:45
external Danilov: "We did not expect this to happen from Belarus. We did not expect such a stab in the back." Head of the National Security and Defense Council, Oleksiy Danilov, said Ukraine had expected Russia to focus their invasion on Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, and Luhansk Oblasts, but had not expected Russian forces to enter the country through Belarus.
03:31
external Russia says it could seize assets of Western companies that have left the country. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin said in a video published on state media that he backs plans to introduce external management and the transfer of these enterprises to those who want to work.
03:07
external Russia bombs Kharkiv institute, home to experimental nuclear reactor. The State Inspectorate for Nuclear Regulation of Ukraine announced that the facility was struck, damaging the exterior and possibly numerous labs throughout the building.
02:58
external UN Security Council to meet over Russia’s claims of “military biological activities of the US on the territory of Ukraine." Russia requested the meeting to discuss unsubstantiated claims that Ukraine is operating biological and chemical labs with the support of the U.S. The U.S. has denied the accusations. The meeting is scheduled for March 11.
02:37
external Russia puts forth new requirements for humanitarian corridors. Russia is demanding lists of all evacuating vehicles and accompanying officials and forbids any communications equipment, except for Red Cross representatives. The corridors are planned for Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Mariupol.
00:25
external Reuters: Facebook to temporarily allow posts calling for violence against Russians, calls for Putin's death. According to internal emails seen by Reuters on March 10, Meta will change its moderation policy in some countries to allow for calls of violence against Russians in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine. The temporary changes apply to Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Russia and Ukraine.
Thursday, March 10
23:58
external Mayor: Russian troops shell Mariupol every 30 minutes. Russian invaders have shelled residential areas in Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast, incessantly with artillery and rocket systems, according to mayor Vadym Boychenko. Russian forces have also prevented the evacuation of civilians from the city, who have been in dire conditions.
23:48
external Twitter deletes Russian embassy disinformation posts. The social network has deleted tweets from the Russian Embassy in the U.K. which attempted to deny Russian involvement in the March 9 attack on a hosptial in Mariupol. Twitter said it had removed the posts for denying violent incidents.
23:38
externalRussian invaders shoot at pensioners in their car. In Makarov, Kyiv Oblast, a Russian Armoured Personnel Carrier (APC) fired upon a civilian car containing an elderly man and woman, according to Kyiv police. Both were killed.
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