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Covid-Pandemie und H5N1-Pandemie - das Ende der Menschheit und vieler anderer Tierarten => Covid-Pandemie und H5N1-Pandemie => Topic started by: YanTing on March 28, 2023, 06:35:35 AM
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Altern Ther Health Med. 2022 Oct;28(7):72-79.
Homoeopathic Medicine Arsenicum album 30 C for Covid-19 in 2020: A Retrospective Analysis from Mass-level Data
Anupriya Chaudhary, Debadatta Nayak, Swati Pandey, Resmy R, Anil Khurana, Covid- Study Group
Abstract
Background and objective:
Homoeopathy has played a notable role in managing epidemics in the past. The Ministry of Ayush, Government of India, declared Arsenicum album 30 C as a prophylactic for Covid-19, which was followed by the distribution of the medicine across India. The Central Council for Research in Homoeopathy (CCRH) collected post-prophylactic consumption data of individuals from various colleges over months, which created a data pool. Considering the importance of these mass-level data and their possible impact on public healthcare decisions, the information gathered from this heterogeneous population cohort was subjected to a retrospective data analysis to observe the incidence of Covid-19 in the community.
Methods:
Data from 50 colleges from February-August 2020 showed that 10.6 million people in 13 states of India received prophylactic medicine during the study period. The data was collected from individuals three weeks following prophylactic consumption for a retrospective analysis. The incidence of Covid-19 was assessed.
Results:
The data of 584 980 individuals who met the study criteria were included in the analysis. The incidence of Covid-19 in the population cohort was 13.58 per 10 000-person weeks (95% CI, 13.04 to 14.14), which remained near-constant over time despite the increasing disease burden in the country (12.87 to 14.52 per 10 000-person weeks). Consumption of the prophylactic significantly reduced the risk of contracting Covid-19 in high-risk groups as compared to their counterparts.
Conclusion:
The study concludes that Arsenicum album 30 C has a potential prophylactic effect against Covid-19. Further controlled studies are recommended to establish a causal relation.
Free full text:
http://alternative-therapies.com/oa/index.html?fid=7132
Excerpts:
"AYUSH ['Ayush is a name devised from the names of the alternative healthcare systems covered by the ministry: Ayurveda, Yoga & Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha, and Homeopathy' - Wikipedia] systems of medicine are an integral part of the healthcare delivery system of the country. The success of homoeopathic medicines in managing past epidemics11,12 testify to their ‘genus epidemicus’ approach, wherein a suitable prophylactic medicine, which is identified to match the characteristic totality, is built after observing several cases of the epidemic.13 In the absence of any known conventional treatment or vaccine for Covid-19, the Ministry of Ayush (MoA) issued a public health advisory suggesting a homoeopathic prophylactic in January 2020.14 Arsenicum album 30 C was recommended by experts as the ‘genus epidemicus’ after assessing the clinical presentation of the disease,15 its affinity for the respiratory system, and its usefulness in previous studies on Influenza-like illnesses (ILI).16,17
"Many provincial governments soon adopted the central advisory, which was followed by door-to-door endeavors for mass distribution of Arsenicum album 30 C by various government, private, and voluntary organizations, and, especially, homoeopathic medical colleges. As these efforts snowballed, millions of people in multiple states, heterogenous in various aspects, and residing in urban, semi-urban, and rural areas, received the medicine.18-21 Subsequently, along with a series of regulatory provisions by the government, many research studies (prophylactic and treatment) were initiated to validate the usefulness of Arsenicum album and other homeopathic medicines for Covid-19.22"
"Data from individuals of all ages, male/female genders, who consumed one dose (adult: four pills comprise one dose; children: two pills comprise one dose) of Arsenicum album 30 C, once daily, for three days, as per the advisory, and could be followed up by the teams at the colleges telephonically/in-person upon the completion of three weeks after the prophylactic consumption, during February–August 2020, were considered as the study population."
"The teams collecting the data comprised homoeopathic doctors."
"The study population was observed for 1 754 940 person-weeks. During the study period, 0.41% (n=2384) of the study population had Covid19. These were composed of 5.24% (n = 125) laboratory confirmed cases and 94.76% (n = 2259) suspected/probable cases. The overall IR of Covid-19 in the study population was 13.58 per 10000-person-weeks (95% CI, 13.04 to 14.14)."
"Sub-group analysis was done by stratifying the study population based on risk factors such as age, gender, and co-morbidities. Males who consumed Arsenicum album 30 C were at a reduced risk of contracting Covid-19 than females (RR=0.90; P=.015). A reduced risk was also observed in the co-morbid population (RR = 0.65; P = .0001) and in persons above 60 years of age, who remained protected as compared to their counterparts despite their added risk (RR=0.79; P=.001)."
"This study found that the overall incidence of Covid-19 in the study population was 13.58 per 10 000-person-weeks, which was comparable with the results of a controlled cohort study undertaken by Nayak et al in the containment zones of Delhi.25 The incidence of Covid-19 remained near-constant over the study period, ranging between 12.87 to 14.52 per 10 000-person-weeks despite increased rates of infection/ community outbreaks of Covid-19 in the country as the pandemic progressed from February 2020 to August 2020."
"It is noteworthy that in the state of Gujarat alone, 50% of the population consumed Arsenicum album 30 C during the first wave.21
"The intake of Arsenicum album 30 C demonstrated a reduced risk of Covid-19 infection in all the risk groups,38,39 namely persons above 60 years of age, males, and persons with co-morbidities. Further, a significant association between the decreased incidence of Covid-19 and consumption of Arsenicum album 30 C was observed, suggesting the potential of the medicine in reducing the added risk in these individuals.
"Unlike the rising caseload seen in India during the unlock phase of the first wave, similar incidence rates of Covid-19 were observed in our study population during the lockdown and unlock phases. Covid-19 infection remained much lower—around 1% among frontline workers (healthcare workers and police personnel) in our study population–when compared with the available prevalence data from India, which ranges between 5%-11%.40,41"
"Being a retrospective data analysis of a population cohort, this study has some limitations...A causal relation between the consumption of medicine and protection against Covid-19 cannot be drawn in the absence of a control group;45 however, observational studies are recommended to estimate the protective effect of an intervention.46 However, the results of this study are found to be comparable with the findings of a controlled cohort study undertaken in the containment zones of Delhi by Nayak et al25 and a retrospective cohort study undertaken by Daruiche et al in Brazil.47"
"Like many known successes with homoeopathic medicines in past epidemics such as the Spanish Flu, cholera, and dengue,11,12,50,51 the findings of this study are evocative of the potential of a carefully-selected homoeopathic ‘genus epidemicus’ in new or lesser-known diseases.
"This study provides potential positive evidence of the prophylactic potential of Arsenicum album 30 C, based on the findings of a controlled prophylactic field study25 and, thus, suggests that it can be explored as a viable alternative or a concomitant measure in case of difficulties in developing and disseminating vaccines, pathogenic mutations, or even the rising incidence of breakthrough infections.
"CONCLUSION
"The study concludes that Arsenicum album 30C has a potential prophylactic effect against Covid-19. Further controlled studies are recommended to establish a causal relation."
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Comments:
Since this is an alternative medicine journal, it is not surprising that the authors do not discuss the fact that homeopathy is rejected by science, or even that it is controversial.
I don't see a clear statement of how they measured the benefit of homeopathy, but I believe it is based on the following: the incidence of COVID in the study group did not increase at a time when it was increasing in the general population; and the incidence remained "around 1%" when the prevalence in the country was 5% to 11%.
As they note, there is no control group so we don't know that the results are due to homeopathy. There is no evidence that the study group was comparable to the general population (no data are given comparing ages, income levels, health status, etc.).
The most likely explanation is that people in the study population, who obtained their homeopathic medication and took it as prescribed, and were available for followup, differ in important ways from the general population. Maybe they were healthier to begin with; maybe they lived in less crowded conditions; maybe they were more compliant with masking, etc. At a time when COVID cases were increasing exponentially, this may have made it appear that homeopathy was protective.
Concerning "the results of this study are found to be comparable with the findings of a controlled cohort study undertaken in the containment zones of Delhi by Nayak et al" (Ref. 25), the abstract of this study is at:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35768003/
"Participants were enrolled in a homeopathy intervention (HI) cohort (who received Arsenicum album) or in a non-intervention (NI) cohort (who received no systematic intervention) from COVID-19 containment areas of Delhi. Individuals of age 5 years or above were given four medicated pills of Arsenicum album 30C, while those from 1 to 5 years old were given two medicated pills in each dose....The protective effect of Arsenicum album 30C against laboratory confirmed COVID-19 was 74.40% (95% CI, 55.08 to 85.41): 18 cases per 6,590 (3.32 per 10,000 person-weeks) in the Arsenicum album 30C group versus 38 cases per 3,590 (11.85 per 10,000 person-weeks) in the NI cohort."
I do not have access to the full text so I cannot see how the participants were divided into the two cohorts and whether they were comparable.
Concerning "a retrospective cohort study undertaken by Daruiche et al in Brazil," the full text of Ref. 47 is available at:
https://www.thieme-connect.com/products/ejournals/html/10.1055/s-0041-1733972
This was a retrospective cohort study involving all workers of a service sector company in Sao Paolo. One control group worked at home and had an incidence of COVID of 13%. The treatment group worked on-premises in the state of Sao Paolo and had an incidence of 0.74%. The second control group worked on-premises in other states and had an incidence of 68%. If you believe these results, taking two drops of the homeopathic medicine per week appeared to reduce the chance of getting COVID by 10- to 20-fold! Not only that, but the homeopathy group had a higher incidence of several underlying medical problems.
Concerning the general claim that homeopathy has proven effective in previous epidemics, Edzard Ernst wrote:
"Epidemics are outbreaks of disease occurring at the same time in one geographical area and affecting large number of people. In homeopathy, epidemics are important because, in its early days, they seemed to provide evidence for the notion that homeopathy is effective. The results of homeopathic treatment seemed often better than those obtained by conventional means. Today we know that this was not necessarily due to the effects of homeopathy per se, but might have been a false impression caused by bias and confounding."
(Homeopathy - The Undiluted Facts, quoted in: https://edzardernst.com/2017/02/homeopaths-love-it-the-epidemiological-evidence-suggesting-that-homeopathy-works/
Comments:
I don't see a clear statement of how they measured the benefit of
homeopathy, but I believe it is based on the following: the incidence of
COVID in the study group did not increase at a time when it was increasing
in the general population; and the incidence remained "around 1%" when the
prevalence in the country was 5% to 11%.
I guess Dr.X is referring to this excerpt: "Unlike the rising
caseload seen in India during the unlock phase of the first wave, similar
incidence rates of Covid-19 were observed in our study population during
the lockdown and unlock phases. Covid-19 infection remained much
lower—around 1% among frontline workers (healthcare workers and police
personnel) in our study population–when compared with the available
prevalence data from India, which ranges between 5%-11%.40,41"
The first sentence seems to be referring to incidence rates. But the second
sentence is clearly about prevalence, not incidence. It's a comparison of
prevalence of 1% among frontline workers in the study population with the
much larger prevalence in India overall. But unlike incidence, prevalence
tells us nothing about risk of developing an infection. Three factors can
affect prevalence: (1) incidence, (2) mortality rate, (3) how fast people
are cured (i.e., no longer infected). Thus, one possible explanation for
lower prevalence among frontline workers in the study population could be
that they were dying off faster than people in India overall. That's a more
plausible explanation than homeopathic remedies providing protection.
Frontline workers risk their lives to save others when infection rates
are high.
Prevalence is analogous to the water level in the bathtub. Incidence is
analogous to water coming out of the faucet. Mortality is analogous to
water going down the drain. Cure is analogous to water being splashed out
of the tub. If the water pressure from the faucet is unchanged, but the
drain is unplugged, the water level will go down. Decreased prevalence does
not necessarily mean good news.
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