Ein Bericht von der russischen Heimatfront: Wie ist die Lage in der Produktionsschlacht?
[*quote*]
Ilya Matveev @IlyaMatveev_
Political scientist formerly based in St Petersburg, Russia (now - who knows). #NoWar
For any inquiries: ilyamatveev1@protonmail.com
[*/quote*]
https://twitter.com/IlyaMatveev_/status/1576586390476705792[*quote*]
Ilya Matveev @IlyaMatveev_
🧵 While I stand by my claim that the long-term effect of sanctions on the Russian economy will be devastating, in the short term, their impact has been weaker than expected.
However, Putin's recent escalation changed everything once again.
1/
4:54 PM · Oct 2, 2022
·Twitter Web App
93 Retweets 15 Quote Tweets 526 Likes
Ilya Matveev @IlyaMatveev_
Oct 2
Replying to @IlyaMatveev_
So far, we have seen a robust response from business, e.g., re-routing of trade from Europe to Asia.
The decline in the container trade seems to have stabilized at -28% y/o/y in August, with ports in the Far East picking some of the volume of the Baltic ones.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeEalT9WAAEYR9h?format=png&name=small2/
Ilya Matveev @IlyaMatveev_
Oct 2
And the overall trade volume in the Russian ports in August was in fact 2% higher than a year ago.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeEa3XbWAAcSiM3?format=png&name=small3/
Ilya Matveev @IlyaMatveev_
Oct 2
Some of the worst-hit sectors, such as auto production, have been unable to recover, and yet, most industries returned to a semblance of normality.
4/
Ilya Matveev @IlyaMatveev_
Oct 2
We have seen a robust response from some state institutions as well, primarily, the much-discussed Russian Central Bank.
5/
Ilya Matveev @IlyaMatveev_
Oct 2
However, the thing to understand here is that so far, the best performing institutions were the ones that could be expected to perform well:
6/
Ilya Matveev @IlyaMatveev_
Oct 2
- The Russian business that has undergone some rationalization and streamlining in the last ~20 years due to the very nature of local and global competition. The same competition gives business a degree of adaptability.
7/
Ilya Matveev @IlyaMatveev_
Oct 2
- And the islands of effectiveness in the state apparatus, primarily, the CBR and other financial authorities.
Scholars of Russian government know these institutions have been rather capable for quite some time now.
8/
Ilya Matveev @IlyaMatveev_
Oct 2
A combined potential of business adaptability and macroeconomic policy allowed the economy to survive the worst of sanctions and to return to something closer to its pre-war state.
9/
Ilya Matveev @IlyaMatveev_
Oct 2
However, in September 2022, the conditions dramatically changed once again.
The mobilization alone means at least 300,000 people taken from their workplaces, and another 300,000 leaving Russia to escape the draft.
10/
Ilya Matveev @IlyaMatveev_
Oct 2
How many more will move to another city to try and hide from mobilization while staying the country?
That means manpower shortages + declining consumer sentiment at the very least.
11/
Ilya Matveev @IlyaMatveev_
Oct 2
In other words, a return to a semblance of normality is now impossible while the new conditions necessitate the full military reorganization of the economy.
12/
Ilya Matveev @IlyaMatveev_
Oct 2
Clothes, medicines and healthcare products, defense industries - all will require a boost to keep up with the pace of mobilization.
13/
Ilya Matveev @IlyaMatveev_
Oct 2
But industrial policy is precisely the weakest spot of the Russian state machine, with poor management, lack of coordination and corruption plaguing the relevant ministries and state corporations.
15/
Ilya Matveev @IlyaMatveev_
Oct 2
While we have some anecdotal evidence that defense factories are now working 24/7, I do not believe the Russian state is capable of the immense effort needed to transform it into a war machine.
16/
Ilya Matveev @IlyaMatveev_
Oct 2
I have never seen quick, cost-effective and successful industrial efforts on the part of the Russian state before.
However, I *have seen* trillions of rubles stolen or gone to waste in defense, mega-projects, failed industrial restructuring etc.
17/
Ilya Matveev @IlyaMatveev_
Oct 2
One thing to remember though is that once the process of state transformation is launched, it can become irreversible, initiating positive feedback loops.
18/
Ilya Matveev @IlyaMatveev_
Oct 2
For now, it's not happening though. I only see Z bloggers endlessly complaining that "we cannot do business as usual" and even Putin himself criticizing how the mobilization is going while it was perfectly clear from the start it wasn't going to go well.
19/
Ilya Matveev @IlyaMatveev_
Oct 2
It is easier to imagine the Russian state collapsing than transforming and re-inventing itself to such an extent.
20/
Dippegucker @Der_Dippegucker
Oct 2
Replying to @IlyaMatveev_
Reminds me of a joke from the 1990ies: Gorbachev asks his advisors how to transform the economy of the SU to prevent bankruptcy. There are two possibilities, a realistic and an unrealistic one.The realistic one is that aliens land in Russia and through their superior technology/1Dippegucker @Der_Dippegucker
Oct 2
Replying to @Der_Dippegucker and @IlyaMatveev_
and out of benevolence rebuild everything. "And the unrealistic one?" The unrealistic one is the Russians doing it by themselves /2+e Peter Parker @PeterParker371
Oct 2
Replying to
@IlyaMatveev_
Nice Thread... Thank you, sir.
[*/quote*]
